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489 days left to the 2022 election
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Your guide to the Swedish election polls

How would Sweden vote if the election was held today? Together with the Swedish National Election Studies Program at the University of Gothenburg, we average the most trustworthy polls into trends.

Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson is Professor in Political Science and has worked with Poll of Polls since the mid-1990s.

Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson explains Poll of Polls

Party by party

How much do the pollsters differ?

Compare the polls by changing party and pollster. Who is closer to the average? In Poll of Polls, the results from multiple sources are weighted to give you a nuanced analysis of the standings.

Poll of Polls is a weighted aggregation of polls from Sifo, Demoskop, Novus, and Ipsos. Statistics Sweden's large-scale Political Party Preference Survey from May and November (SCB/PSU) is part of Poll of Polls as well.

Polls that are not based on probability sampling, such as self recruited web panels, are excluded from Poll of Polls. For more information on each pollster's methodology, we refer you to their websites.

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Ipsos
2 months ago
Sifo
2 months ago
Demoskop
2 months ago
Novus
3 months ago
Skop
5 months ago
Statistics Sweden
6 months ago
Sentio
9 months ago
Inizio
2 years ago
Yougov
3 years ago

Up or down?

What's happened since the 2014 election?

Compare the latest poll with the results of the last election. Drag the slider under the graph to view the progress over time.

March 15, 2021
September 19, 2014
March 15, 2021

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Methodology and sources

Poll of Polls is a weighted aggregation of polls from Sifo, Demoskop, Novus, and Ipsos. Statistics Sweden's large-scale Political Party Preference Survey from May and November (SCB/PSU) is part of Poll of Polls as well. These surveys all pose similar questions (if the election was held today, which party would you vote for?). Polls that are not based on probability sampling, such as self recruited web panels, are excluded from Poll of Polls.

The method behind Poll of Polls is based on a moving average of the results (in percent) that the parties get in the polls. A simple function (Ipoly) is used to give more weight to recent polls. The results are also weighed to favor polls with a large number of respondents. The function sensitivity, i.e. the degree to which new polls affect the results, is tuned to not give too much weight to surprising results in a single survey.

The collaboration between Datastory and the Swedish National Election Studies Program was made possible with funding from Riksbankens Jubileumsfond.

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